Using Advanced Analytics to Build the Best Lines for the Minnesota Wild for the 2024-2025 Season
If you go look in the comments of any Minnesota Wild beat writer, blogger, or podcaster’s X feed or article, you’ll almost certainly see what Jessi Pierce calls the “Line Heathens,” or the Wild fans who need to know what the lines will be for the upcoming season or game.
While coaches, and sometimes upper management, always have their reasons for putting certain players together, I thought it’d be a fun exercise to dive into various advance analytical data to see what the numbers say the Minnesota Wild lines should be. Using that information, plus some of my own evaluation and opinions, I’ll be creating what I think to be the ideal Minnesota Wild lineup for Game 1 of the 2024–25 NHL season.
Line 1
Kirill Kaprizov-Ryan Hartman-Mats Zuccarello
Yes, I know. This is controversial. It’s hard to pull Kaprizov away from Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy because they were arguably the best line in hockey the back half of last year.
According to MoneyPuck.com, that line had an expected goals share of 66.6% across 375 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time, the second best mark among all NHL forward lines to play at least 300 minutes together behind only the Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins line for the Edmonton Oilers. They backed that up with a 4.64 goals/60, also the 2nd highest mark in the NHL.
That said, I’m in the camp that the team, at least to start the year, needs to create multiple scoring lines and that starts with reuniting Kaprizov and Zuccarello. If the Wild are going to be successful this year, it’s going to be because they get a guy like Zuccarello going early.
As seen in the chart below, Zuccarello struggled mightily at 5v5 last year when he wasn’t paired up with Kaprizov, generating just 2 goals and 5 assists in nearly 461 minutes played compared to the 4 goals and 17 assists he had playing with Kaprizov across 504:36.
While there was only a 44-minute difference in total TOI, Zuccarello was on the ice for 17 more goals with Kaprizov on his line versus being away from his line, this is a bit surprising given that the expected goal share doesn’t show a big difference, but with the dynamic duo on the ice, the Wild scored 11 more goals than expected, versus 2.5 goals above expected with just Zuccarello on the ice.
What this really boils down to is Kaprizov’s elite finishing ability. Kaprizov succeeded with both Zuccarello and Boldy because they’re two of the best passers in the NHL as seen here is this chart from All Three Zones. Zuccarello created 9.09 shots per 60 with his passes, Boldy 9.63 per 60.
This means the Kaprizov always had someone to feed him pucks, and he likes to shoot the puck in his own right. But Zuccarello, when away from Kaprizov, didn’t have a finisher and often lacked someone who put pucks on a net at a high rate.
He spent most of his time* away from Kaprizov with Marco Rossi (587:28), Ryan Hartman (314:13), and Marcus Johansson (251:45).
There might be some overlap with those numbers.
These types of players, notably Rossi and Johansson, don’t exactly fit well with Zuccarello because of their low shot rate. Rossi averaged 7.23 shots per 60 and Johansson 6.86. Adding to this, Johansson had 24 games without a 5v5 shot on goal and two or fewer shots on goal in 66 of his 78 games, not an ideal formula for creating goals on passes from an elite playmaker.
So why not try Zuccarello with Boldy? Kaprizov thrives on finishing chances from great passes and aside from himself and those two wingers, not a lot of other players can create chances through passing. Kaprizov needs one of those two and as we get into the next line, you’ll see why it’s key to keep Boldy and Eriksson Ek together. Adding to that, if you were to put Zuccarello with those two (which might actually work decently well), there would not be an elite passer to utilize Kaprizov’s shooting ability.
The last spot came down to Hartman and Rossi and Hartman gets the edge here and it came down to what he does best: shooting the puck.
Hartman’s 34-goal breakout season came while playing with Kaprizov and Zuccarello in 2021–22. Since spending time away from them, he’s struggled to find that form across the last two seasons scoring 15 goals in 59 games in 22–23 and 21 goals in 74 games last year. This is despite Hartman being third on the team in shots on goal with 412 since the 21-22 season.
His finishing dropped drastically in both of those seasons and that’s likely due to not getting as many high danger passes that he was previously getting from Zuccarello and Kaprizov. So reuniting him with those two could help bring that back to form.
I would listen briefly to an argument for Hartman with Boldy and Eriksson Ek on the second line, but I don’t think that lets you create the combos and identities you want on lines 1 and 3. Line 3 could be good spot too, providing tons of energy and grit playing alongside Foligno and Trenin, but Hartman’s defensive game has dropped dramatically the past few years and has transitioned into much more of a one-dimensional offensive threat than the shutdown threat that he used to be.
The TLDR here is Kaprizov is elite shooter and passer. He needs two types of players on his line: one that can feed him pucks and one that will shoot the pucks he passes. Zucarrello and Hartman fill these roles (as would Boldy and Eriksson Ek), but the former options give the Wild a better chance at creating two scoring lines instead of one.
Line 2
Liam Öhgren-Joel Eriksson Ek-Matt Boldy
I’ll admit there may be a bit of a selfish wish here including rookie Liam Öhgren with Eriksson Ek and Boldy, but I have my reasoning and we’ll get to that shortly, but let’s start with Eriksson Ek and Boldy.
This dynamic duo is one of the strongest on the entire Wild roster. They dominate in every area of the game, both offensively and defensively. Since 2021, with those two on the ice, the Wild have controlled play in pretty much every single notable advance metric.
The most notable stat on this chart is the finishing ability with the Boldy/Ek duo and their line mates scoring 3.44 goals/60 compared to the 2.46 goals/60 the team scores with the duo on the bench.
Referring back to the chart earlier from All Three Zones, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Few players in the NHL have the ability to both create chances with passing AND shooting better than Boldy. And very few players in the league are around the front of the net generating dangerous chances at a higher rate than Eriksson Ek.
These two can do a lot of heavy lifting and drive a line on their own, they don’t necessarily need a third elite player, like Kaprizov, to be successful (though we did see how formidable of a line that can be).
That’s why I decided to slot Öhgren in. We have a very small sample size from his 4 game stint in the NHL, but there was a lot to like and a lot to suggest he’ll succeed in a top 6 role in the NHL.
He had a 5v5 shots/60 rate of 7.92, which was sandwiched between Eriksson Ek and Hartman. He was not afraid to put the puck on net. He was also able to maintain a 52.9% expected goal share while playing the majority of his minutes with either Rossi or fellow European rookie Marat Khusnutdinov, showing he has the ability to drive play.
The hallmark of Ek and Boldy is not only do they create a lot offensively, but they can also shutdown opposing teams quite well. I believe Öhgren’s size, compete level, and hockey IQ will allow him to fit into this line. He’ll be given the green light to shoot the puck and work his offensive creativity, without having to worry too much about making mistakes because he has two elite two-players to cover for him.
The final consideration for including Öhgren on this line is… who else fits? We’ve already discussed some of the shortcomings of Johansson; Freddy Gaudreau seems to be quickly falling out of favor, especially for a top 6, or even middle 6 role; Hartman is already slotted in on the 1st line and the rest of the forwards profile more as bottom 6 forwards than top 6. Rossi is the one other possibility here given his willingess to go to the net, battle down low, and to play a smart two-way game, but I don’t think the Wild want to slide him to the wing, at least not yet.
Add on to all that, the Wild didn’t trade for Rutger McGroarty or Patrik Laine, leaving a clear spot open for someone to step into the spotlight on Line 2 and my gut says that guy is Öhgren.
Line 3
Marcus Foligno-Marco Rossi-Yakov Trenin
This is where I know I’m going to catch heat from the Wild faithful, “Marco Rossi on the 3rd line?! Aren’t you a Rossi truther??”
Yes, I am a Rossi truther and I think this is where he provides the most value. We haven’t necessarily seen the offense pop yet for Rossi, at least not at the level we saw from him in the OHL. That said, his strong two-way game and high-energy motor has held steady.
There’s also a “looking forward” lens to this decision as well. Eriksson Ek is cemented as a top 6 center for years to come and the Wild have high hopes for center prospects Riley Heidt and Danila Yurov, the latter of whom may earn a spot as soon as next season. If Yurov, or Heidt, pans out the way the team hopes, there isn’t a center spot in the top 6 for Rossi, so why not lean into that a bit and see if Rossi can be a very good 3rd line center (a team with Rossi as its 3C is a playoff team IMO).
He’s already shown us some glimpses of this. Rossi got a bit of Calder love last year and it was warranted. He scored 21 goals and added 19 assists for a very respectable 40-point campaign. This came with very little consistency in line mates and minimal time on power play 1. However, he always seemed to find ways to create chances offensively and limit them defensively, no matter who he played with.
Those are traits you want in a 3C — 20 goals, 40 points, and capable possession numbers. And let’s not forget how good Rossi and Foligno played together last year. It’s easy to forget due to Foligno’s injury, but this duo was as good as gets from a shutdown perspective.
Across the board, Rossi and Foligno were as defensively dominant as it gets. The 1.69 GA/60 and 1.80 xGA/60 are elite numbers, like we’re talking GREEF line/Selke levels of shutdown capabilities. Why does this matter?
Well, remember earlier when I mentioned how desperately the Wild need to find secondary scoring? One way of doing that was separating Kaprizov, Ek, and Boldy, but the second is creating this line: a shutdown line capable of stifling opponents’ top lines, opening up the 1st and 2nd lines to take on easier matchups and likely scoring more goals.
The wild card is who the third forward ends up being. It might be easy to slot Johansson in here as he would seemingly bring a bit, albeit not much, of an offensive punch as well puck carrying ability and speed, but I don’t think that’s what the line needs. It needs a bit more nastiness and physicality, both things Yakov Trenin does well.
The Wild invested 4 years and $14M ($3.5M AAV) in Trenin. Those are not numbers and term you give to a guy that’s going to play on the 4th line. He was brought in to bring identity back to the lineup and that’s why he fits what we’re creating with the Rossi/Foligno shutdown line.
We obviously don’t have a ton of data to say that Trenin will mesh perfectly with these two players, but his historical tendencies tell us there’s a good shot he will.
Trenin’s RAPM chart, shown above courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com, shows that Trenin excels in the same areas that Rossi and Foligno found success and that’s playing defense and limiting chances, shown by the dark blue bars for his xGA/60 and CA/60. And while his offensive numbers are below the league average, he does things in the offensive zone that should still help the Wild.
Trenin’s offensive contributions come from a few key areas: Forechecking, passing, cycling, and zone entries.
While he’s not a high volume shooter or elite skater, Trenin likes to get pucks deep into the zone and then forecheck the heck out of the defenders. He has an elite pressure rate, something that should jive well Foligno’s energy on the forecheck. Both players excel at cycling the puck as well. He’s also a decent passer, which bodes well for Rossi who likes to go to the net, and also for Foligno whose found more offensive luck shooting versus passing. All these things combined should help this line chip in offensively, without having to rely on them to be a scoring line.
The Wild haven’t had a legit shutdown line since the GREEF line, but I think there’s a good chance this trio is up to the task.
Line 4
Jakub Lauko-Marat Khusnutdinov-Freddy Gaudreau
This was the hardest line to figure out, mostly because I’m not really sure which of Gaudreau, Johansson, and Jakub Lauko will flank Marat Khusnutdinov, or if Khusnutdinov is even the 4C for that matter.
I don’t have as much analytical backing for this group either as we have two players with little to no history with the Wild in Khusnutdinov and Lauko. But this line makes the most sense to me.
Gaudreau has been a featured a penalty killer for the Wild, albeit not a great one, and has the most term left on his deal than anyone else here. His shootout ability is an important asset as well.
Khusnutdinov got a lot of playing time down the stretch last season and is likely to be a bigger part of the team’s future than the other three players, so I’d assume he at least starts in the 4C spot and stays there unless the team decides he’d be better off developing his game in Iowa.
That left the final decision down to Lauko and Johansson.
Johansson has the edge if you consider his tenure with the team and that he’s seen time on the power play, however, I’m not sure his skillset really fits into a 4th line role. His defensive numbers aren’t super impressive and he doesn’t do much to create offense on his own.
Lauko was brought over in the Vinni Lettieri trade with Boston and he profiles a bit better for a 4th line role given his energy and physicality.
That said, I could see the Wild making changes to this line often given what the feel they need in a given game: speed or toughness.
Ultimately, the goal for this line is just simply not got scored on and maybe to provide a spark with some speed or the occasional big hit. Gaudreau should have some special teams responsibilities as well.
Defensive Pairings
Jonas Brodin-Brock Faber
Jake Middleton-Jared Spurgeon
Declan Chisholm-Zach Bogosian
Now I could spend another 3–5 paragraphs writing about why these pairs make the most sense, but I don’t think that’s necessary. It’s easiest to just summarize it this way:
Brodin, Faber, Middleton, and Spurgeon are the Top 4 D. Middleton looks like an AHL defenseman when he’s not next to Spurgeon. Faber is at his best playing alongside Brodin.
That gives you two pairings that you can roll out relatively evenly as long as everyone is healthy. I don’t anticipate these pairings will change much at all unless there are injuries, at which time we can revisit this post and look at what they should do at that point.
That’s all I got for you line heathens. If you like this post, please share it. The more interaction it gets, the more motivation I’ll have to create more posts like this one.
Also be sure to follow me on X @B_Marsh92 and tune into The Sota Pod every week during the season to hear me talk more about the Wild through an analytical lens!
